Event Newsstand & Takeaways

Takeaways from Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China Property Market Webinar
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Takeaways

Recovery to be protracted市场受疫情影响恢复将被延迟

As the SARS-CoV-2 infection beats a relentless march across the world, the global economy is bracing for the sharpest downturn since the Global Financial Crisis with some economists even conjecturing it could rival the Great Depression when the final impact is tallied. Hopes of a quick V-shaped recovery having all but evaporated in the past weeks and panelists on APREA’s latest webinar: COVID-19 Disruption – The Path Forward for China’s Property Market remain realistic. “I think it is going to be a long W shape,” said Chris Wu, Group CFO, Chongbang Group. The need to balance public health and safety with economic growth will be a seesaw scenario. In terms of the investment landscape, there will be mismatched expectations between buyers and sellers in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, which will likely take a few months to find equilibrium. Hei Ming Cheng, Founder and Chairman, Kailong Group believes that investment volumes will remain depressed for the first half of the year. Travel restrictions are also hampering final negotiations and disclosed that deals KaiLong have been working on have also dragged for longer than usual. He expects some extent of cap rate expansion as income turns uncertain. “While interest rates will remain low, credit spreads will also expand as banks attach a higher risk premium into loans,” he said.

随着新型冠状病毒在世界各地肆虐,世界经济正迎来全球金融危机以来最严重的下滑,一些经济学家甚至猜测,这次疫情所带来的最终影响可以与经济大萧条相提并论。“V字型”迅速复苏的希望也在过去的几周内消失殆尽,参加亚太房地产协会网络研讨会的演讲嘉宾也表达了更符合现实的观点。崇邦集团首席财务官Chris Wu先生说:“我认为接下来的发展将呈现 “长W形”。在公共健康及安全与经济增长之间如何取得平衡,将成为一大难题。就投资前景而言,在新冠病毒开始流行之后不久,买卖双方的期望已经出现不匹配的情况,这可能需要几个月的时间才能找到新的平衡。凯龙瑞集团创始人兼董事长郑喜明先生认为,今年上半年投资量将持续保持低迷。人们的被限制的出行也阻碍了最终谈判的达成,他表示受疫情影响,凯龙瑞正在着手的项目也被推延到比平时更长的时间完成。他预计随着收入不确定性的增加,上限利率在一定程度上也将增加。他说:“尽管利率将维持在较低水平,但随着银行将较高的风险溢价附加到贷款中,信贷息差也将扩大。”

Presentations

Speakers
Cheng Hei-Ming

Cheng Hei-Ming

Founder & Chairman
KaiLong Group

Alvin Loo

Alvin Loo

Head of China
ARA Asset Management

Chris Wu

Chris Wu


Group CFO Chongbang Group

Lijian Chen

Lijian Chen

Senior Executive President
China Orient Summit Capital (COS)

Angel Tang

Angel Tang

Deputy General Manager
China Overseas Commercial Properties CO., Ltd.

Bernie Devine

Bernie Devine

Senior Regional Director, Asia Pacific
Yardi